MD 0226 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE ALABAMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0226
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 PM CST Tue Mar 08 2022
Areas affected...portions of far southeast Louisiana into the
Alabama Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 090350Z - 090715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A localized, short-duration severe threat may develop
across portions of far southeast Louisiana towards Mobile Bay in the
next several hours. Marginally severe hail appears to be the primary
threat, though a damaging gust or waterspout cannot be completely
ruled out along the shoreline. A relatively greater severe threat
may develop around Mobile Bay later tonight. A WW issuance is not
currently expected.
DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and KLIX radar imagery depicts deepening
convection across far southeast LA and points just off shore, with
lightning trends on the increase over the past hour or so. These
storms are developing within a confluence band ahead of a cold
front, where 03Z mesoanalysis depicts up to 7.5 C/km 700-500 mb
lapse rates in place (8.5 C/km for the 700-500 mb layer based on the
00Z LIX observed sounding). The 00Z LIX observed sounding also shows
modestly veering and strengthening winds with height in the
surface-500 mb, contributing to over 40 kts of effective bulk shear.
The steeper mid-level lapse rates are contributing to over 900 J/kg
MUCAPE, even on the immediate cool side of a baroclinic zone draped
across southeast LA into the Mobile Bay area. Occasional bouts of
mid-level rotation and perhaps an instance or two of marginally
severe hail may accompany the more persistent elevated updrafts on
the cool side of the boundary. However, any storms that can sustain
on the warm side of the boundary could become surface based, posing
a threat for a damaging gust or a waterspout along coastline areas.
As the cold front progresses eastward overnight, a general increase
in storm coverage and intensity is expected around and east of the
Mobile Bay area by 09-10Z. In this regime, stronger low-level flow
will be in place, with storms capable of producing damaging gusts,
marginally severe hail, and perhaps a tornado.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 03/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 29149086 29659039 30218980 30428870 30818806 30788770
30608753 30288798 29768871 29378900 29258900 29008903
28918936 28878982 29149086
