MD 0229 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL GA…EASTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022
Areas affected...Southwest/South-Central GA...Eastern FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 091047Z - 091245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Supercells capable of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes
may develop later this morning across southwest/south-central GA and
the eastern FL Panhandle. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed
across portions of the region to cover this risk.
DISCUSSION...Thermodynamic environment across southwest GA and
adjacent portions of the eastern FL Panhandle continues to improve
under modest moisture advection. Recent surface analysis places a
low near TOI in southeast AL, with a warm front extending eastward
through south-central GA before arcing more northeastward into
southern SC. Surface observations across the region south of this
front show temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in
the mid 60s. Despite this favorable low-level moisture, buoyancy
across the region the rather modest, with mesoanalysis recently
estimating MLCAPE around 500 J/kg. Some increase in the buoyancy is
anticipated as low-level moisture gradually increases, but MLCAPE
will likely remain below 1000 J/kg.
Broad ascent fostered by warm-air advection coupled with forcing
along an approaching cold front is forecast to result in gradually
increasing thunderstorm coverage this morning. Even though buoyancy
will be modest, veering low-level wind with height and moderate
deep-layer vertical shear will support the potential for a few
supercells. Primary severe threat with these storms will be damaging
wind gust but tornadoes are also possible. Given this risk, a
Tornado Watch will likely be needed for portions of southwest GA and
the eastern FL Panhandle.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 03/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31728505 32168488 32398427 32378335 32158287 31498259
30568279 29828348 29738412 29938475 30168504 31058505
31728505
