MD 0231 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 40… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FL AND COASTAL GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0231
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022
Areas affected...Portions of north FL and coastal GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 40...
Valid 091515Z - 091645Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 40 continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated tornadoes and damaging winds should
continue across parts of north Florida and coastal Georgia today. A
downstream Tornado Watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...Within a band of storms ongoing over the northern Gulf
and central FL Panhandle, a persistent supercell has been noted on
radar. This storm has shown signs of low-level rotation over the
past couple of hours as it has moved generally eastward across the
FL Panhandle. The airmass downstream of this convection appears
sufficiently unstable to support surface-based storms, with MLCAPE
generally around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt should
also be marginally sufficient for a mix of supercells and line
segments. Modestly enhanced low-level southwesterly flow is forecast
to gradually diminish through the day. But, there may still be
enough low-level shear to support updraft rotation and a threat for
isolated tornadoes. The overall magnitude of the severe threat is
somewhat uncertain with eastward extent across the remainder of
north FL and coastal southeastern GA today owing to the limited
low-level shear. Regardless, another Tornado Watch will need to be
considered for this region given observational and short-term model
trends.
..Gleason/Hart.. 03/09/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 30028447 30408388 31418259 31478212 31178131 30648137
29848120 29668291 30028447
