MD 0237 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 41… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022
Areas affected...portions of central Florida
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41...
Valid 102237Z - 110030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat has diminished across WW 41, and should
continue to do so into this evening. It appears that watch
cancellation can be considered, prior to its scheduled 11/02Z
expiration.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered thunderstorms ongoing
across central and portions of southern Florida, with a few of the
storms strong in character. The most intense convection at this
time is off the eastern coast, moving eastward/offshore. Meanwhile,
the inland portion of this convective cluster appears much weaker,
and is being undercut by convective outflow moving steadily
southward.
Meanwhile, a second cluster of convection that included a few more
vigorous updrafts while over the eastern Gulf has weakened as storms
have moved onshore near and south of the Tampa Bay area.
Overall, risk for severe weather has decreased, and should continue
to do so over the next few hours. Available CAPE has been steadily
decreasing per RUC-based objective analysis, in tandem with the
beginnings of diurnal boundary-layer cooling that is currently
observed. In addition, flow aloft -- already veered and not
particularly strong, resulting in only modest deep-layer shear --
has shown a weakening trend with time per area WSR-88D VWPs,
consistent with model guidance.
Given this evolution of the environment, severe weather risk should
remain low, and gradually decrease with time. While potential for a
strong wind gust will continue for another hour or two, it appears
that early cancellation of the watch may be warranted.
..Goss.. 03/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 27418277 27958217 28188127 28558050 28248011 27598027
27188075 27108176 26838274 27418277
