MD 0247 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER
Mesoscale Discussion 0247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 AM CST Sat Mar 12 2022
Areas affected...Parts of eastern North Carolina and adjacent
portions of northeastern South Carolina and the Virginia Tidewater
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 121212Z - 121415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A developing line of showers and embedded thunderstorms
appears likely to overspread the coastal plain and Outer Banks
vicinity during the 8-11 AM EST time frame, accompanied by the risk
for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...The primary surface low now appears east-northeast of
Danville VA, but a trailing frontal wave appears the focus for an
evolving narrow band of stronger convection and embedded
thunderstorms. This band is in the process of accelerating
northeast of the South Carolina Piedmont, nearly coincident with an
intensifying low-level jet streak. Models suggest that the core of
this jet will intensify in excess of 80 kt around the 850 mb level,
while propagating across the eastern North Carolina coastal plain
and Outer Banks vicinity during the 13-16Z time frame. The boundary
layer across this region has been gradually warming and moistening
overnight, contributing to at least very weakly unstable
near-surface lapse rates and mixed-layer CAPE. The extent to which
this may support substantive intensification of the approaching line
of convection remains unclear. However, the environment may be more
conducive to the downward transfer of potentially damaging wind
gusts; and low-level wind profiles characterized by extreme
low-level shear, with weak to modest low-level hodograph curvature,
might prove conducive to intensifying low-level mesocyclones with
the potential to produce tornadoes.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 03/12/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34957901 35787808 36557656 36737619 35867550 35177578
33997768 33957885 34957901
