MD 0263 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0263
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Areas affected...Central into northeast FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 161647Z - 161815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon. The strongest storms will be capable of
hail, locally damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Watch issuance
is possible by 18Z.
DISCUSSION...Substantial diabatic heating/destabilization is
underway across most of the FL Peninsula early this afternoon, with
convection recently increasing across the central/northeast FL
Peninsula. As MLCINH erodes this afternoon, an increase in storm
coverage/intensity is expected, mainly along/east of the midlevel
dryslot attendant to the mid/upper-level cyclone over AL.
MLCAPE is expected to increase into the 1500-2000 J/kg range this
afternoon, as temperatures warm into the 80s F. Relatively strong
midlevel southwesterly flow is supporting effective shear of 35-45
kt, sufficient for a few supercell structures with any sustained
discrete convection.
As storms mature this afternoon, the threat for large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts will increase. While low-level shear is
relatively limited, a brief tornado or two will also be possible
with any stronger supercell. Watch issuance is possible by 18Z in
response to this threat.
..Dean/Bunting.. 03/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 28908234 30088161 30138135 29948103 29728078 29198044
28358011 28128013 27888004 27598104 27698165 27978233
28258245 28908234
