MD 0266 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GA INTO SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Wed Mar 16 2022
Areas affected...parts of eastern and southeastern GA into
southwestern South Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 162055Z - 162230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...In the wake of earlier storms, some additional
thunderstorms may pose a low-end severe risk for hail and or strong
wind gusts into this evening.
DISCUSSION...Afternoon visible imagery across portions of southern
GA and western SC showed clearing and deepening cumulus in the wake
of storms earlier in the day allowing surface temperatures to warm
into the middle to upper 70s. Ahead of a surge of dry mid and
low-level air associated with an eastward moving upper low, surface
flow has veered considerably and surface moisture has begun eroding
across southwestern GA. However, lingering moisture and steep
mid-level lapse rates near 8 C/km should remain sufficient to
support weak buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) across parts of
southeastern GA and southwestern SC. While uncertain in extent, some
redevelopment of thunderstorms appears possible with the warming
airmass. Despite veered low-level flow, deep-layer shear of 35-40
kts remains favorable for organized storms including supercell
structures. Hi-res guidance and observational trends suggest some
potential for severe hail and damaging winds may develop and
continue late this afternoon and into this evening. However, given
the limited buoyancy, prior overturning, and increasingly dry air,
convective coverage is uncertain.
..Lyons/Bunting.. 03/16/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31428297 31608340 31938358 32208337 32448298 32888223
33118172 33178136 33098097 32728092 32418092 32088104
31568154 31088236 31248274 31428297
