MD 0276 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 50… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MS INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0276
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022
Areas affected...Portions of southern MS into southern/central AL
and the western FL Panhandle
Concerning...Tornado Watch 50...
Valid 181216Z - 181345Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 50 continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind and tornado threat should continue
with storms moving eastward this morning. Downstream watch issuance
is being considered.
DISCUSSION...A bowing line is progressing fairly quickly eastward
across parts of southern/central AL this morning, aided by strong
low-level warm advection associated with a 45-55 kt southerly
low-level jet. Most of the line remains elevated as of 1215Z, with a
continued lack of recent severe/damaging wind reports. Current
expectations are for the southern part of the line (across mainly
southern AL), and any discrete cells that can form ahead of it, to
have the best potential for severe in the short term. Strong
low-level shear remains favorable for updraft rotation, and any
storms that can become surface based may pose a threat for tornadoes
in addition to damaging winds. The main limiting factor still
appears to be that the fast eastward progress of the ongoing
convection is generally outpacing the more substantial low-level
moisture return. Still, a couple of confluence bands have recently
developed ahead of the line across far southern MS into coastal
southern AL. This area should have the best chance for severe storms
this morning as surface dewpoints increase into the mid to upper
60s. A downstream Tornado Watch is being considered for more of
southern AL and parts of the western FL Panhandle.
..Gleason/Grams.. 03/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 30748977 31248964 31658846 32008773 32288737 32278648
32018606 31688591 30948607 30468639 30368680 30208802
30348858 30328930 30258951 30748977
