MD 0278 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…SOUTHWEST GEORGIA…FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022
Areas affected...southeast Alabama...southwest Georgia...Florida
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 181534Z - 181700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts or perhaps a couple tornadoes may occur
east of tornado watch 51, and and a new watch appears likely.
DISCUSSION...Outflow with a line of storms continues to surge
southward across southeast AL and into southwest GA. While this may
result in lower tornado probabilities due to undercutting outflow,
the air mass is gradually destabilizing ahead of it. Therefore, an
uptick in damaging wind potential may materialize later today.
Farther west into south-central AL and western parts of the FL
Panhandle, better separation from the outflow to the north, combined
with strong shear and higher dewpoints still suggests a tornado or
is possible. Storms south of the main outflow boundary may also
briefly acquire rotation as the intercept the boundary due to
enhanced lift.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30368663 31488610 31558574 31708515 31628474 31308443
30758466 30318534 30218592 30318628 30368663
