MD 0284 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0284
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 PM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022
Areas affected...portions of northern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190312Z - 190415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes remains possible with the stronger QLCS
circulations over the next hour or so. A WW issuance is not expected
given the isolated nature of the severe threat.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS has recently become organized over the past
hour, with at least two different circulations being associated with
TDSs. Current KLVX and TSDF radars show organized low-level
circulations in progress. As long as these circulations persist, a
brief tornado remains possible. However, 03Z mesoanalysis shows
MLCAPE decreasing below 250 J/kg as MLCINH continues to increase. In
addition, hodographs have increased in size farther east per ILN and
JKL VWPs, suggesting that the low-level jet and resultant better
low-level shear has also become eastward-displaced. As such, the
ongoing tornado threat is expected to remain relatively isolated and
short-lived, and a WW issuance is not currently expected.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 03/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 37478601 37798609 38108600 38388559 38488520 38378471
38268461 38028469 37598550 37478601
