MD 0285 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Areas affected...much of eastern Pennsylvania into central New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191833Z - 192130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
over the next few hours, and watch may be needed.
DISCUSSION...A midlevel vorticity maximum over OH will move into PA
and NY later today, providing cooling aloft as a speed max noses
into PA, enhancing deep-layer shear.
Low-topped convection currently over west-central PA may intensify
as it proceeds east into the zone of heating and destabilization,
and additional activity may develop ahead of the front across
southeast PA as the air mass becomes uncapped.
Low-level wind fields are not particularly strong today, but
effective SRH may increase to around 200 m2/s2 by late afternoon
across eastern PA, favoring a supercell or two. Otherwise,
hodographs are elongated with will most likely favor cellular storm
mode with near-severe limits possible. Steepening lapse rates and
further heating may also favor strong wind gusts as well.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LAT...LON 41857441 41377471 40497549 39887627 39877716 40217748
40817765 41267773 41757778 42317758 42827682 43627529
43677457 43227416 42377431 41857441
