MD 0286 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sat Mar 19 2022
Areas affected...The Southern Atlantic Coast
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191905Z - 192100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually intensify through
the early/mid afternoon amid daytime heating and increasing
instability. Main hazards will be hail and strong, damaging winds.
Trends will be monitored, but a watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Recent satellite imagery and lightning trends have
shown a gradual uptick in convection along and ahead of a weak
surface cold front that is pushing east across northern FL, eastern
GA, and the Carolinas. Convection thus far has struggled to maintain
intensity, likely due to residual capping/poor 850-700 mb lapse
rates noted in an 18Z sounding from CHS as well as ACARS soundings
from Savannah, GA. Adjusted for recent surface observations that
show temperatures in the low/mid 80s, both observed and forecast
soundings suggest that MLCAPE values should increase to 1000-1500
J/kg along the south Atlantic Coast in the near term. However, the
poor mid-level lapse rates may continue to limit the longevity of
weaker convective updrafts in the absence of stronger forcing for
ascent. Consequently, convective coverage of strong/severe storms is
somewhat uncertain and may be limited.
Weak hodograph structure (flow weakness) above 2 km is noted in the
recent CHS and ACARS soundings, which will further limit the
potential for organized storms in the near term. However, forecast
soundings suggests the wind profiles across the region will elongate
later this afternoon with the approach of stronger mid-level flow.
Any storms that can remain sustained may see a gradual
intensification through the late afternoon with an attendant
hail/wind threat. Trends will continue to be monitored, and a watch
is possible if the convective threat appears sufficiently
widespread.
..Moore/Guyer.. 03/19/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 31068473 32068364 33058171 33488064 33687969 33437913
33097903 32298021 31458098 30838127 30408162 30298244
30308350 30448425 30558481 31068473
