MD 0289 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST CO…FAR NORTHEAST NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Areas affected...Southeast CO...Far Northeast NM
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 211517Z - 212115Z
SUMMARY...Instances of heavy snow are possible across southeast CO
and far northeast NM, particularly between 18Z and 21Z.
DISCUSSION...The deep shortwave trough currently moving through the
southern High Plains is expected to continue eastward throughout the
day, obtaining a more neutral (and maybe even slightly negative)
tilt as it does. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated ahead of this
shortwave, likely over east-central NM, with the resulting low then
moving eastward across the lower TX Panhandle. This overall
evolution/maturation of the shortwave will contribute to persistent
low to mid-level frontogenesis over portions northeastern NM into
southeast CO/far southwest KS. During this same period, cold
advection will contribute to cooling low-level thermodynamic
profiles. The combination of persistent ascent and potentially
banded precipitation structure with cooling thermodynamic profiles
may result in areas of heavy snow across southeast CO and and far
northeast NM. Additionally, some modest buoyancy is noted in the
forecast soundings, indicating the potential for some deeper
convective elements, which would also enhance precipitation rates.
The probability for heavy snow (i.e. rates of 1" per hour or
greater) appears to be maximized between 18Z and 21Z as the surface
low deepens and the shortwave pivots eastward to northeastward.
..Mosier.. 03/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 37800539 38200458 38180299 37350284 36650361 36540492
37180552 37800539
