MD 0291 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Areas affected...Northwest/North-Central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 211829Z - 212030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon, with an attendant threat for hail and damaging wind
gusts. Given the anticipated severe coverage, a watch will likely be
needed across portions of the region this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across
northwest/north-central TX. Recent surface analysis shows upper 50s
dewpoints now into SPS and vicinity, with lows 60s across western
portions of North TX. The arcing band of thunderstorms in SWW
continues to move quickly east-northeastward into this area.
Mesoanalysis shows that little to no convective inhibition remains
and SWW recently gusted to 30 kt, suggesting an increasing potential
for surface-based storms. The dryline remains west of this region,
but the increasing large-scale forcing for ascent (attendant to the
exit region of the mid-level jet) and continued eastward
acceleration of the dryline/front should promote additional
thunderstorm development as the air mass further destabilizes. The
strong southerly mid-level flow will promote a southerly deep-layer
vertical shear vector, and this line-parallel orientation will
contribute to a predominantly linear mode for much of the region.
The only exception is across southwestern portions of North TX
(roughly south of I-20 and west of US-281) where stronger
southeasterly low-level flow could result in a few more discrete
cells.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to hail as the main
severe threat, although the predominantly linear mode will likely
foster some stronger wind gusts as well. Given the anticipated
severe coverage, a watch will likely be needed across portions of
the region this afternoon.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/21/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33520046 34210024 34359914 33769746 32869716 32059793
32339912 32980009 33520046
