MD 0294 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 53… FOR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0294 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53... Valid 212146Z - 212315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms will spread/develop northeast into southern Oklahoma over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Mid-level speed max over the Edwards Plateau is ejecting toward southeast OK. This feature will encourage further strengthening of the LLJ across northeast/eastern OK where values will likely approach 70kt by early evening. Extensive convection across OK is expected to maintain cooler boundary-layer conditions north of a warm front that should advance slowly north ahead of the primary surface low. Several long-lived supercells are currently tracking northeast toward south-central OK where updrafts may become elevated as they cross the warm front. Forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy exists across southern OK for robust elevated convection capable of generating large hail, and perhaps isolated severe wind gusts. There is some concern that areas east of I-35 over southern OK may need to be included in a severe thunderstorm watch -- either new or extended -- to account for this activity spreading/developing northeast. ..Darrow.. 03/21/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 34779787 34819686 34649585 34149557 33909594 34109794 34779787