MD 0296 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS…EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS…NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0296 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0703 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022 Areas affected...East Texas...Extreme Southwest Arkansas...Northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 220003Z - 220100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Tornado threat will increase downstream of ww54 in the next few hours. New tornado watch will be warranted by 01z. DISCUSSION...Strong upper trough is ejecting across TX this evening as 500mb speed max translates through the base of the short wave toward southeast OK where speeds should increase in excess of 100kt by 06z. This feature will focus an intense LLJ across northeast TX/eastern OK with an eastward shift into AR by late evening. Air mass is expected to recover across northeast TX into the Arklatex region as the surface low tracks deeper into OK. Several long-lived supercells with confirmed tornadoes are ongoing across central/south-central TX. Wind profiles are very favorable for this activity to track northeast across the remainder of ww54 over the next several hours. New tornado watch will likely be issued immediately downstream by 01z to account for this evolution. ..Darrow/Edwards.. 03/22/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32329566 33679497 32969334 30109452 30129619 32329566
