MD 0297 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 54… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022
Areas affected...portions of central into northern Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 54...
Valid 220024Z - 220200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 54 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 054. A
QLCS tornado and damaging-wind threat is expected across the
northern portions of the watch, while supercells with tornadoes
(some possibly strong) should continue across central parts of the
watch for at least a few more hours.
DISCUSSION...A QLCS is maturing across northern Texas per latest
MRMS mosaic radar imagery. Meanwhile, at least 4 supercells with a
history of producing tornadoes are ongoing across central Texas.
Storms within both regimes are impinging on the western fringes of
the low-level jet and associated strong low-level shear, which is
likely supporting the relatively robust tornado production that has
been observed over the past few hours. A moist, buoyant
thermodynamic profile is accompanying the low-level jet per 23Z
mesoanalysis, with over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE residing ahead of both the
supercells and QLCS.
Damaging winds and isolated tornado potential should continue with
the QLCS through the remainder of the evening, including in areas
east of the ongoing watch (please see Mesoscale Discussion #0296 for
more details). Farther south, supercells are remaining discrete and
are continuing in a favorable CAPE/shear environment for continued
tornado production. It is possible that the Pacific front/dryline to
the immediate west may catch up to the storms. In this case, the
supercells may grow upscale into an MCS similar to what has happened
farther north. However, Warn-on-Forecast high-resolution ensemble
guidance suggests that supercells may remain discrete through 02Z.
The best corridor for tornadic supercells may be from Falls/Lee
County and points northeast, as storms farther to the south may be
struggling due to weaker flow in the 850-700 mb layer.
..Squitieri.. 03/22/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...
LAT...LON 29229808 31199772 32989705 33799651 33919568 33739542
32809534 31879543 30929580 30129610 29579657 29259739
29229808
