MD 0305 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 56… FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TX INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022
Areas affected...Portions of far east TX into far northwestern LA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 56...
Valid 220608Z - 220745Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat in the near term, including the
potential for a tornado, should focus across parts of far east Texas
into northwestern Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a supercell with low-level
rotation embedded within a small line segment over far east TX,
moving into far northwestern LA. 0-1 km shear greater than 400 m2/s2
remains very favorable for continued updraft rotation per recent VWP
from KSHV. The airmass across this small area should also be
sufficiently unstable to support surface-based storms for at least
the next 1-2 hours, with MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg. Current
expectations are for this convection to pose a continued tornado and
damaging wind threat in the near term as it spreads slowly eastward
given the enhanced winds associated with a 50-60+ kt southerly
low-level jet. The airmass downstream across north-central LA will
attempt to destabilize in the next few hours, and a severe threat
may persist with eastward extent across LA beyond 08Z.
..Gleason.. 03/22/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...
LAT...LON 31949457 32299435 32739424 32929370 32909327 32529320
32149350 31929391 31949457
