MD 0306 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 58…59… FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL/EAST TX INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0306 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Areas affected...Portions of coastal/east TX into western/northern LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 58...59... Valid 220900Z - 221100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 58, 59 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat continues early this morning. DISCUSSION...A slow moving and expansive squall line is ongoing at 09Z from parts of the middle TX Coast region northeastward into northern LA. The overall line is making only modest eastward progress, as strong southerly flow at low levels and enhanced south-southwesterly winds at mid levels encourage cells within the line to move generally northeastward. A reservoir of rich surface dewpoints is still present ahead of the line across coastal/east TX into western and north-central LA. A generally uninhibited boundary layer with MLCAPE ranging from 500-1500 J/kg should continue to support surface-based storms. It does appear that the northern portion of the line is being mostly undercut by its own outflow. The best severe potential in the near term may be focused across parts of the middle TX Coast, where more cellular convection has recently formed. This activity is probably related to ascent associated with an embedded mid-level vorticity lobe ejecting over south TX. Current expectations are for an isolated severe hail and damaging wind threat to persist for the next couple of hours, especially with any cells that can remain at least semi-discrete ahead of the line. A brief tornado may also occur given the strength of the low-level flow, particularly over parts of east TX into LA where greater 0-1 km SRH is present. ..Gleason.. 03/22/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 28749794 30009674 31619473 32999282 32979213 32719209 31229356 30799420 28919610 28509758 28749794