MD 0308 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 60… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0308 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0943 AM CDT Tue Mar 22 2022 Areas affected...Parts of southwestern and central Louisiana into southwestern and central Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 60... Valid 221443Z - 221645Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 60 continues. SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms may continue to gradually organize while spreading eastward across the region through midday, perhaps increasingly preceded by isolated to widely scattered supercell development. This will probably be accompanied by increasing risk for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes, one or two of which could become strong. Trends are being monitored for an additional watch east of Tornado Watch 60. DISCUSSION...Strongest convection has recently been focused along a pre-frontal convective outflow boundary and the surface front, particularly near where they intersect, across the Sabine River vicinity north-northeastward toward Monroe. In advance of this activity, warm layers in the lower/mid troposphere are still contributing to weak inhibition, with seasonably moist boundary-layer air confined to a narrowing plume across Louisiana coastal areas through southwestern and central Mississippi. This is roughly aligned with the strong south-southwesterly low-level jet axis, including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb. Through 16-18Z, latest model output suggests that an 850 mb speed maximum will continue to nose inland along this corridor, associated with an elongated secondary surface frontal wave. Coinciding with continuing boundary-layer warming, large-scale forcing for ascent downstream of the approaching mid-level trough, and associated weakening of inhibition, substantive further convective intensification and upscale growth seems probable. Some further enlargement of the warm/moist sector, characterized by mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg, is still possible in association with the inland migrating jet streak, and it is possible that discrete thunderstorms could begin forming and become more prominent in advance of the convective system. If this occurs, veering low-level wind profiles with height, exhibiting strong speed shear and modest clockwise hodograph curvature, will be conducive to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. Supercell structures posing a risk for tornadoes may also evolve within the developing convective system. Otherwise, with a large component of the strong south-southwesterly deep-layer mean wind fields oriented parallel to the convective system, eastward progression will probably remain relatively slow. However, more rapidly north-northeastward surging cells/segments within the leading intense line probably will begin to pose increasing risk for potentially damaging surface gusts through midday. ..Kerr.. 03/22/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 29859343 30729279 31749175 32889089 33399010 33518969 33078895 31189000 29659176 29549290 29859343