MD 0322 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022
Areas affected...Eastern Indiana and western Ohio
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231640Z - 231845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A watch is possible for portions of eastern Indiana and
western Ohio. Deepening convection will eventually support a threat
for severe hail and isolated damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...Showers have developed in parts of north-central
Kentucky and southern Indiana over the last hour. Recent NLDN data
shows a flash or two of lightning has occurred. With mostly clear
skies ahead of this north/northeastward moving activity, these
showers/storms are expected to deepen over the next couple of hours.
As this occurs, strong effective shear (40-50 kts), 500-750 J/kg
MLCAPE, and cold temperatures aloft will support a threat for severe
hail. Low-level lapse rates will be steep enough to support a threat
for isolated damaging winds as well. While the tornado threat will
remain low, there is some potential for stretching of vorticity
along the subtle confluence zone/surface trough this afternoon.
Should this occur, a brief tornado would be possible. A watch is
possible this afternoon.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 03/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 40388594 41318563 41648486 41498402 40598381 39558415
38868480 38468546 38508592 38718613 38908619 39288610
40388594
