MD 0323 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Florida and southeastern
Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231736Z - 232000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing strong thunderstorm development, perhaps
including the evolution of a couple of supercells, is possible
through 2-5 PM EDT, posing at least some risk for severe hail, an
isolated tornado, and locally strong surface gusts. It is not
certain that a severe weather watch is needed, but trends will
continue to be monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Within the narrow pre-frontal plume of higher
precipitable water content (including values on the order of 1.75-2
inches), and associated extensive convective development which
trails southwestward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, one
embedded mesoscale convective vortex appears in the process of
migrating inland east of the Florida Big Bend. While thunderstorm
activity near this feature has generally been in the process of
gradually weakening, a seasonably moist boundary-layer ahead of it
is destabilizing with insolation and warm advection, particularly
across eastern portions of northern Florida into southeastern
Georgia.
As this continues mid/upper forcing for ascent and weak mid-level
cooling might become sufficient to contribute to the initiation of
intensifying new thunderstorm development through the 18-21Z time
frame. Coinciding with strengthening lower/mid tropospheric wind
fields, accompanying a jet streak associated with the mid-level
perturbation (including speeds of 40-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer),
it appears possible that the environment could become conducive to
the evolution of one or two supercells. This may be accompanied by
the risk for a tornado and severe hail, before perhaps growing
upscale with increasing risk to produce to strong wind gusts while
spreading offshore.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/23/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 31368253 32048201 32238162 32008117 31078148 30128154
29718205 29368266 29278319 29788335 30198326 30728305
31368253
