MD 0335 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022
Areas affected...Parts of the east central Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 241552Z - 241745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm activity is
possible across much of the region through 2-4 PM EDT, some of which
may pose a risk for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. It
still appears unlikely that a severe weather watch will be needed,
but trends will continue to be monitored.
DISCUSSION...An inland advancing pre-frontal wind shift and, more
recently, the trailing sea-breeze, have provided a focus for
sustained convective development this morning. Downstream of this
activity, a seasonably moist boundary layer is destabilizing with
insolation and mixing contributing to steepening low-level lapse
rates. Mixed-layer CAPE may begin to maximize around or in excess
of 1500 J/kg within he next few hours. This is occurring in the
presence of moderate to strong deep-layer shear, beneath 35-50 kt
southwesterly mid-level flow. Low-level hodographs appear largely
linear, but mean environmental wind speeds in the lowest few
kilometers above ground level are around 25-30 kt.
With continuing gradual mid-level height falls overspreading the
region, and lingering inhibition weakening further, substantive
thunderstorm intensification seems probable across interior to
coastal east central Florida through 18-20Z. This might include a
mix of discrete storms and a small organizing cluster or two, with
isolated supercells possible. Stronger activity may be accompanied
by small to perhaps marginally severe hail. However, locally
damaging surface gusts appears the primary potential severe hazard,
aided by heavy precipitation loading and latent cooling due to
melting and evaporation in downdrafts.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/24/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...
LAT...LON 26798117 27388126 28388120 29018122 29278112 28498057
26928029 26638061 26798117
