MD 0357 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 77… FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022
Areas affected...Central Mississippi into western Tennessee
Concerning...Tornado Watch 77...
Valid 301916Z - 302115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 77 continues.
SUMMARY...Scattered damaging wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes will
remain a threat this afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION...The most intense part of the eastward moving squall
line is within east-central to northeast Louisiana nearing the
Mississippi River. This line has exhibited several embedded
circulations on the KPOE radar as it moved through central Louisiana
over the last two hours. Downstream low-level shear remains quite
strong per regional VWP data -- 850 mb winds are around 50 kts from
Jackson, MS to Memphis, TN. Damaging wind gusts will continue to be
a threat as this line moves into temperatures in the upper 70s/low
80s F and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F across much of
southern/central Mississippi. Farther north into northeastern
Arkansas and western Tennessee, buoyancy is less owing to cloud
cover; however, low/mid-level winds remain strong. A 50 kt gust was
observed at Stuttgart, AR despite a weaker thermodynamic
environment.
Tornadoes will also remain a concern given the large magnitudes of
low level SRH -- per VWP data and objective mesoanalysis. The
primary uncertainty is in regard to discrete storm development ahead
of the squall line, which would pose greater risk of a strong
tornado. The 18Z JAN sounding along with a 17Z research sounding
near West Point, MS show mid-level temperature inversions that
reduce buoyancy. Visible satellite trends in cumulus development
match with the observed soundings in that updrafts have tended to
struggle away from the main band of forcing.
..Wendt.. 03/30/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 31589052 31499091 31599134 32029161 34059154 35309104
36169085 36399052 36448924 36288916 36298909 35288854
33038907 32149002 31589052
