MD 0388 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN KS INTO MO…SOUTHERN IA…WESTERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 0388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023
Areas affected...Far eastern KS into MO...southern IA...western IL
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 311336Z - 311500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat will increase substantially
through the morning. Tornado Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently intensified over
eastern KS, in association with a subtle lead shortwave trough
ejecting in advance of a larger/more intense trough moving toward
the central Plains. A strong low-level jet will support rapid
airmass modification downstream of the ongoing convection into MO
and southern IA, and surface-based convection will likely develop
later this morning as the lead shortwave and ongoing convection move
quickly east-northeastward.
Regional 12Z soundings depict very favorable midlevel lapse rates
and strong deep-layer shear. The ongoing elevated convection will
pose a risk of hail, with all hazards becoming possible later this
morning, as the potential for surface-based supercells increases. If
any surface-based supercell can become established this morning,
favorable low-level shear could support some strong tornado threat
with this lead convection into the afternoon, along with a risk of
very large hail.
While some uncertainty remains regarding the convective evolution
this morning, Tornado Watch issuance will likely be needed for at
least parts of the MCD area by 15Z.
..Dean/Hart.. 03/31/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 37259498 39069505 40379483 40469473 41109362 41029180
40549092 40039031 39408966 38348977 37429152 36919314
36949420 37139468 37259498
