MD 0394 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TX…TX BIG COUNTRY
Mesoscale Discussion 0394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected...Northwest TX...TX Big Country
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 091247Z - 091445Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail
and damaging gusts are possible across the Texas Big
Country/northwest Texas this morning.
DISCUSSION...Elevated supercell continues to move northeastward at
around 30 mph. Based on recent forecast soundings, this storm is
likely rooted around 800 mb, within an environment characterized by
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer vertical shear.
Cloud-bearing layer shear is likely around 70-80 kt. This strong
shear will likely allow for this storm to persist as it moves
northeastward over the next hour or two, despite relatively modest
buoyancy. Large hail is the primary risk, but strong gusts are also
possible, as evidenced by the recent gust of 60 kt in Garza County.
Additional development is possible over the next few hours near and
west/northwest of the surface low (currently in the Reagan County TX
vicinity) as both warm-air advection and strengthening large-scale
ascent bring parcels to their LFCs. This activity will likely be
elevated throughout the morning, but strong shear will support the
potential for large hail. Some stronger gusts could reach the
surface as well. Overall severe coverage is uncertain, but trends
are be monitored closely for potential watch issuance.
..Mosier/Smith.. 04/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 31360038 31870104 33460101 34409938 33739841 32659853
31649917 31360038
