MD 0411 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 100… FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TX…SOUTHERN LA…CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Areas affected...Far Southeast TX...Southern LA...Central/Southern
MS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...
Valid 101035Z - 101230Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes remain
possible across far southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.
Additionally, the tornado threat appears to be increasing across
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where a Tornado Watch
will be needed soon
DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line continues to move quickly
across far southeast TX. Recent radar imagery has shown an increase
in echo tops within the line, with a bookend vortex also becoming
more observable. This line is now more favorably oriented with the
deep-layer vertical shear vector and the downstream air mass remains
moist and unstable. As such, the line is expected to continue
progresses eastward into southwest LA, with some potential
intensification possible. Primary threat remains strong gusts (60-80
mph), but embedded QLCS tornadoes are possible as well.
Farther east, a blossoming warm-air advection regime is contributing
to increasing storm coverage and intensity. Storm in Assumption
Parish has a strong updraft with modest supercellular
characteristics. This trend for increasing storm coverage and
intensity will likely spread northward/northeastward into more of
southeast LA and eventually into southern MS. The parameter space
supports supercells capable of all severe hazards and Tornado Watch
will likely be needed soon.
..Mosier/Smith.. 04/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 29429189 29599311 29509413 29739459 30079467 30529448
30929373 31339162 32379032 32288886 31078899 29439029
29429189
