MD 0428 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1015 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023
Areas affected...eastern Ohio into western Pennsylvania and New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 011515Z - 011745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Storms producing damaging winds appear increasingly likely
today, beginning over eastern Ohio and moving quickly into parts of
New York and Pennsylvania.
DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows strong heating occurring over
the region, with storms beginning to form ahead of the cold
front/vort max. Despite low dewpoints, very steep deep-layer lapse
rates, strong shear and substantial mixing of high winds aloft will
likely yield wind gusts in excess of 50 kt over much of the area. As
such, a watch is likely, and the outlook will feature a 30% severe
wind probability.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 43167875 43167804 43067780 42597752 41447750 40697783
39917843 39738036 39688131 39858173 40088179 40698195
41388197 42038161 43127903 43167875
