MD 0430 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023
Areas affected...parts of central Pennsylvania into New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 011802Z - 012000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...An arcing line of convection along the cold front is
likely to produce severe gusts over the next several hours. An
additional watch may be required soon.
DISCUSSION...A line of convection along the cold front will continue
to push east quickly across western NY and into central PA. This
line continues to produce wind gusts over 50 kt with damage reports.
Instability is currently maximized over western PA with MUCAPE
around 500 J/kg, and surface observations east of the existing watch
show quite a bit of mixing with dewpoints averaging the mid 30s F.
However, continued cooling aloft and mixing down of winds,
especially beneath the stronger reflectivities, will continue to
pose a severe wind threat downstream across NY and PA. The line will
gradually encounter better dewpoints as it crosses into eastern PA
and NY, and this may result in an even greater risk of severe
storms, to be addressed later today.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 39968002 40517970 41187950 42027963 42847931 43247662
42867598 42357576 41677583 40527654 39977755 39777881
39767968 39968002
