MD 0436 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TOWARD INTO FAR WESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023
Areas affected...southeast Texas toward into far western Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021718Z - 022015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms may develop over the next few hours, and
large hail will be possible with the stronger cells. A watch could
be considered later today, depending on convective evolution.
DISCUSSION...A warm front currently stretches from near Austin
toward Houston, with 70s F dewpoints to the south. Visible imagery
shows filtered heating across much of the moist sector, with
substantial deepening CU fields noted. North of the warm front
across eastern TX into LA, clear skies will lead to steepening
low-level lapse as moisture continues to surge northward into this
air mass.
Observed and model soundings indicate a warm layer close to 700 mb,
but these temperatures cool with eastward extent and into LA. For
example, currently 3-4 C difference between Austin and the TX/LA
border.
As such, the most likely area for storm development will be within
the low-level theta-e advection regime, and beneath the cooler
temperatures aloft. CAMs suggest at least isolated activity will
occur this afternoon, and ample instability, long hodographs and
sufficiently steep midlevel lapse rates will favor hail production.
Given subtle lift, it may take some time for cells to become severe.
..Jewell.. 04/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30169522 30329589 30549615 30759635 31469624 32089550
32189510 32149450 31789361 31279334 30389347 30199393
30169522
