MD 0438 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 110… FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023
Areas affected...North/Central TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...
Valid 022211Z - 030015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards,
including very large hail and tornadoes, will continue for at least
the next few hours across central TX.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 60 miles
north-northeast of ABI, with a dryline extending south from this low
to near BWD and then back southwestward through the Edwards Plateau.
A few storms have initiated along this boundary over the Low Rolling
Plains, where surface temperatures are in the upper 70s/low 80s amid
dewpoints in the mid 60s. Mid-level lapse rates remain steep (i.e. 7
to 7.5 degrees C per km), which, when combined with the relatively
warm and moist low-levels, is supporting moderate instability.
Recent mesoanalysis estimates 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Additionally, surface winds throughout the warm sector are southerly
at 10 to 15 kt, veering to more southwesterly at 40 kt by 1 km. This
shear is sampled well by recent VAD profiles at FWS and GRK, which
place the 0-1 SRH around 200 m2/s2. These conditions suggest the
ongoing storms should continue, with the overall environment
remaining supportive of supercells for at least the next few hours.
All severe hazards will remain possible, including very large hail
and tornadoes.
..Mosier.. 04/02/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32919924 33339897 33409856 33339789 32859693 32409618
32029554 31629553 31079590 30759683 30869764 31119823
31659885 32119905 32919924
