MD 0440 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 110… FOR NORTH/CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0721 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023
Areas affected...North/Central TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...
Valid 030021Z - 030215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.
SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of all severe
hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, remain possible.
Localized area of greater tornado risk likely exists across central
Texas for the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Discrete supercells continue to move
eastward/southeastward across north/central TX this evening. The
southernmost pair of supercells, over Bosque/Hill and Coryell/Bell
Counties, is upstream of a narrow corridor of more favorable
low-level moisture and slightly stronger southeasterly surface
winds. Recent surface observations along I-35 show dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s amid temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Recent mesoanalysis estimates effective-layer STP is 4 to 5 in this
region. As a result, additional storm intensification/organization
is possible as the ongoing supercells enter this region. All severe
hazards are possible, including very large hail and tornadoes.
A more linear storm mode exists farther north over Grayson, Denton,
and Collin counties, where storms have organized along the outflow
boundary. Ample downstream buoyancy, as well as updraft augmentation
due to interaction with the warm front, suggests these storms will
persist downstream. Primary threats are damaging gusts and hail,
although an embedded tornado is also possible on the southern end of
the line where surface-based parcels are more probable.
..Mosier.. 04/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...
LAT...LON 31079804 31709778 32979738 33719649 33419537 31759619
30759686 31079804
