MD 0444 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA…SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI…AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0444
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023
Areas affected...parts of southern and eastern Louisiana...southern
Mississippi...and far southwestern Alabama
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 030603Z - 030800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe risk is forecast to gradually increase overnight
across parts of Louisiana and into southern Mississippi, and
eventually into far southwestern Alabama. A couple of tornadoes,
along with locally damaging wind gusts and hail, will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows band of slightly elevated
storms moving across northern Louisiana at this time, near and just
to the north of a surface warm front extending eastward across
northern Louisiana and into southern Mississippi. While a locally
stronger gust or two will remain possible with this convective band,
severe threat should remain limited, due to the elevated nature of
the convection.
Just to the south/southeast however, a very moist gulf airmass is in
place south of the aforementioned warm front, where dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s are observed. In conjunction with 30 to 40 kt
low-level southwesterlies providing warm/moist advection across
southern Louisiana, warm-advection-type showers continue to develop
and spread north-northeastward. These showers have gradually
deepened/strengthened, which is consistent with CAM guidance which
continues to show eventual supercell development across this region.
A few of the stronger showers have shown very weak rotation, and
updraft splits, despite the lack of lightning thus far. As the
convection continues to increase, and based on this behavior and the
background/supporting environment, risk for a couple of tornadoes --
along with locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail -- seems
likely to evolve. Such an evolution over the next 1 to 2 hours
would require consideration for WW issuance.
..Goss/Grams.. 04/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 30329301 31829186 31439061 31408935 31088789 30578750
29828881 29769013 29919245 30329301
