MD 0446 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST AL INTO SOUTHWEST GA AND PORTIONS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023
Areas affected...southeast AL into southwest GA and portions of the
FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 031428Z - 031630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe potential may continue downstream from WW 112 into
the afternoon hours. Eastern extent of risk is uncertain and area is
being monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...An ongoing convective complex across southern AL is
occurring near/north of a warm front extending east/southeast into
southwest GA and northwest FL. The western edge of this area of
convection is likely on or just south of the warm front and poses a
greater short term risk of damaging gusts.
Downstream for WW 112, greater boundary-layer moisture is noted
across southeast AL and portions of the FL Panhandle where dewpoints
are in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F. With eastward extent and
north of the warm front, dewpoints are generally in the 50s across
southern GA. However, dewpoints are increasing as the front lifts
north, and dewpoints have increased 2-4 degrees over the last hour
or two into far southwest GA, with a 65 F dewpoint now indicated at
BGE. The current concern is that deeper boundary-layer moisture may
not return northward quickly enough further east into
south-central/southeast GA, and the ongoing MCS could outpace
greater surface-based instability. This lends to some uncertainty in
eastward extent of continued severe potential.
However, cells along the western extent of ongoing convection may
continue to shift more southeasterly along the low-level theta-e
gradient and pose a continued risk of damaging gusts and possibly a
tornado within WW 112. With east/southeast extent, enlarged and
favorably-curved low-level hodographs along the frontal zone
indicate some tornado potential also may persist in addition to wind
damage across a small portions of SE AL and far southwest GA. While
shear will be weakening through the afternoon, it should still be
sufficient to support organized convection. A narrow downstream
watch may be needed for southeast AL into far southwest GA, but
eastern extent of the threat remains uncertain.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 04/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31678642 31558470 31328358 30928328 30478350 30328408
30348468 30498560 30668617 30898647 31678642
