MD 0449 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0449
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032048Z - 032215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Initiation attempts along the dryline may result in an
isolated supercell risk late this afternoon into the evening. Hail
and damaging winds would be possible if storms can maintain
intensity.
DISCUSSION...As of 2045 UTC, area visible imagery showed deepening
cumulus towers along the dryline at the nose of returning surface
moisture over portions of central TX. A subtle southern stream
perturbation and surface temperatures warming into the mid 90s F to
the west of the dryline have removed most of the inhibition
immediately along the boundary from proximity RAP soundings. However
the strong heating has mixed surface dewpoints into the 50s F
keeping buoyancy limited to around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Farther east
the cooler and more moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the upper
60s F) remains somewhat capped. Should storms develop and sustain
themselves, strong mid-level flow with 40-50 kt of effective shear
would support organized storms including supercells. If able to
realize the deeper moisture and shear east, 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
steep lapse rates will support a risk for large hail and damaging
winds.
Some Hi-Res guidance does depict an isolated storm potentially
continuing into early evening across central TX, but uncertainty
remains relatively high. Trends will be monitored for a possible
weather watch should multiple storms persist and pose a more
significant severe threat.
..Lyons/Gleason.. 04/03/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30269975 31399943 32219837 32439758 32409710 32099689
31379709 30589721 30069755 29239823 29209875 29499947
29719956 30269975
