MD 0547 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST FL
Mesoscale Discussion 0547 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0910 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2023 Areas affected...West-central into southwest FL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170210Z - 170345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts and/or hail may accompany stronger storms late this evening. DISCUSSION...The remnant of a long-lived storm cluster is approaching the FL Gulf Coast late this evening, with a modest uptick in convective coverage and intensity noted over the last 1-2 hours. Moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear (as noted on the 00Z TBW sounding and recent mesoanalyses) will support some storm organization, and isolated instances of hail and/or strong damaging gusts will be possible with the more intense cells/clusters. The greatest relative threat is expected over the southwest FL Peninsula, where there is less influence from earlier convection compared to areas farther north and east. At this time, the threat is expected to remain too isolated and marginal for watch issuance. ..Dean/Guyer.. 04/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW... LAT...LON 25678138 26378237 26958267 27488285 27968276 27918219 27518181 27198164 26388110 25878108 25678138