MD 0573 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023
Areas affected...Portions of eastern Texas and northwestern
Louisiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 201708Z - 201915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered gusty winds and severe hail possible through
early afternoon. This area will be monitored for a potential watch.
DISCUSSION...An area of pre-frontal clustered cell development is
expected across portions of eastern Texas and northwestern
Louisiana. Breaks in mid-level cloud cover have allowed daytime
heating, with around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in surface
objective analysis. Shear profiles are marginal, around 20-30 kts
from VAD profiles at SHV and FWS. Morning 16Z RAOBs from FWD reveals
deepening moisture and eroding inhibition at the base of an elevated
mixed layer, with steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km. Given
the marginal shear for organization and steep lapse rates, severe
hail and gusty winds will be possible with storms that develop ahead
of the approaching cold front. This area is being monitored for a
potential watch.
..Thornton/Grams.. 04/20/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29959889 30529837 31169737 31469695 31899629 31959623
32579539 33359446 33549374 33369352 32999336 32789336
32529359 32139377 31779398 30849420 30059489 29059638
28919753 28789841 28959890 29479897 29959889
