MD 0591 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0591
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0707 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023
Areas affected...central North Carolina into parts of southern
Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 221207Z - 221400Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A threat of isolated severe gusts or perhaps a brief/weak
tornado exists from central North Carolina into southern Virginia
this morning. Low coverage of expected severe will likely preclude
a watch in the near term, though watch(es) may be needed farther
east/northeast later this morning.
DISCUSSION...A gradually lengthening arc of storms continues to
develop into central NC and recently southwest VA, ahead of the
midlevel vorticity max. This zone is also beneath modest southerly
flow at 850 mb of around 30 kt, which is resulting in theta-e
advection just off the surface. With these wind speeds, 0-1 SRH is
averaging around 150 m2/s2, which may support low-level rotation
near the leading edge of this line of storms.
MUCAPE is likely on the order of 500 J/kg, and further
destabilization is expected due to both cooling aloft and continue
low-level theta-e advection. Given the relatively organized line of
convection, a developing surface trough and pockets of heating later
this morning, some increase in storm intensity is possible. Locally
strong gusts are most likely, but an elongated shear zone along the
leading outflow may also support a brief/weak tornado, especially if
the boundary layer becomes more unstable later today.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 04/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 35278067 35858055 36738072 37028078 37258058 37657937
37497893 37207860 36847858 36237866 35837905 35367956
35257998 35278067
