MD 0595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2023
Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into the southern New England
region
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 221847Z - 222045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...An organized line of thunderstorms with a history of
sporadic wind damage will continue into eastern Pennsylvania and the
southern New England region. A downstream watch is probable.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour show an organized band
of convection moving across the DelMarVa region. This band has a
history of sporadic tree damage, and will continue moving into an
area featuring around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. While this instability is
somewhat meager, strong deep-layer shear and 30-35 knots of 0-3 km
bulk shear orthogonal to some sections of the line will likely
compensate for the limited buoyancy and maintain at least a
semi-organized line downstream. Consequently, a severe thunderstorm
watch may be needed in the short term to address this threat.
..Moore/Hart.. 04/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
LAT...LON 41167744 41657676 41797508 41507430 41067411 40037431
39027469 38727569 38577651 38727715 39707713 40167726
40367740 41167744
