MD 0612 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023
Areas affected...central portion of the FL Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251955Z - 252200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and localized damaging gusts are
possible through 7pm EDT.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and radar imagery show developing
storms along the west coast sea breeze from near Ocala southward
through the I-4 corridor east of Tampa Bay. KTBW and KMLB VAD data
show 50-kt westerly flow at 7-8 km which is aiding in both storm
venting/organization. RAP forecast soundings show around 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE with relatively steep low-level lapse rates in areas not
behind the cooler sea-breeze front. A few marginal supercell
structures are possible with the more intense storms and large hail
will be the primary risk (hail diameter 1.0 to 1.75 inches). The
overall risk will be isolated in coverage and the temporal window of
opportunity will likely be relegated between now (350pm EDT) and
700pm EDT. A localized damaging gust cannot be ruled out,
especially with a collapsing core.
..Smith/Gleason.. 04/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27158182 27298210 28068230 28758218 29168218 29268190
29088163 28428130 27738035 27388043 27158182
