MD 0615 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023
Areas affected...Portions of southern Texas and the Texas Coastal
Plain
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 252146Z - 252315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong supercells are possible this evening with
large hail as the primary threat.
DISCUSSION...Strong instability has developed across southern Texas
where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to low 70s with temperatures in
the mid 70s. This has resulted in an uncapped airmass. Forcing is
relatively weak, but there is weak warm air advection across the
region and a mid-level shortwave trough is moving through southern
Texas now. This combined forcing may be sufficient for a few severe
storms to develop this evening, however, mid-level temperatures are
warming. The small cell across Gonzales county has had intermittent
lightning for over 90 minutes and may be struggling with this mid
level warning. Nonetheless, there is a conditional severe weather
threat if any sustained storms develop. Shear is very strong across
the region (55 to 60 knots per SPC mesoanalysis) and therefore,
supercells are likely. Strong buoyancy and strong shear will support
a threat for large hail while weak low-level shear should limit the
tornado threat.
Therefore, the severe weather threat across the Texas Coastal Plain
is conditional on sustained supercell development, but if more than
one storm can become sustained, a severe thunderstorm watch may be
needed.
..Bentley/Grams.. 04/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28389897 29759827 30119782 30219696 29789638 28959651
28219691 27869724 27569778 27449820 27509865 27579900
27719906 28389897
