MD 0620 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0620
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023
Areas affected...portions of north Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260829Z - 261030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated large to very large hail threat will persist
west of the Metroplex early this morning.
DISCUSSION...A persistent elevated supercell likely producing
significant hail continues to track east/southeast to the west of
the DFW Metroplex early this morning. MRMS MESH has indicated hail
greater than 2.5-3 inches in diameter was possible with this storm
over the past hour or so.
Steep midlevel lapse rates near 8 C/km are contributing to MUCAPE
around 1500-2000 J/kg. Effective shear greater than 40 kt also will
likely aid in maintaining an organized supercell at least in the
short term. Downstream from this storm, additional convection is
blossoming and may negatively impact longevity of the intense
supercell entering Stephens County beyond the next hour or so.
Nevertheless, given the favorable instability and shear parameter
space, ongoing and newly developing convection may continue to pose
a large hail threat into the morning hours near/west of the
Metroplex. Given the isolated nature of the threat, a watch is not
expected at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Leitman/Edwards.. 04/26/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
LAT...LON 32159756 32169816 32249868 32319898 32669918 32829924
32999918 33069887 33049833 32979778 32859757 32509750
32269750 32159756
