MD 0622 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0622 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023 Areas affected...Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261714Z - 261915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A threat for large to very large (2-3 in.) hail and damaging winds will exist this afternoon. A watch will likely be needed within the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development/deepening is occurring along the Atlantic sea breeze front in east-central Florida. Initial attempts at storm development have not become sustained. Without much in the way upper-level support, it may take another 2 or so hours of heating before storms are able to mature. The 15Z Cape Kennedy sounding showed mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. With effective shear of 40-50 knots across the Peninsula, supercells are the expected storm mode this afternoon and evening. Observational trends support several model solutions of storms developing first near the eastern coast before developing later in western/central portions of the Peninsula. The improved shear and colder temperatures aloft as compared to the last two days will support a threat for potentially very large (2-3 in.) hail as well as strong/damaging downburst winds. A watch for much of the Peninsula is likely. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 04/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27928205 29438256 29918228 29658126 28658064 27858033 27378011 26818011 26098026 25688041 25738070 26618158 27928205