MD 0623 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS NRN OK…S-CENTRAL/SERN KS…SWRN MO.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN OK...S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...SWRN MO.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292251Z - 300115Z
GRADUAL DEEPENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ARE PSBL FOR CONVECTIVE
PLUME NOW EVIDENT IN VIS AND REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM CENTRAL OK
NEWD OVER ERN KS AND SERN MO. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS
WEAK/NEBULOUS...BUOYANCY AND SHEAR PROFILES DO INDICATE SVR THREAT
WITH TSTMS EVOLVING FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
RGL SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TWO PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONES OVER
REGION...
1. STRONGER AND QUASISTATIONARY SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INVOF
LIC...ITR...GBD...EMP...OJC AND INTO CENTRAL MO...FCST TO MOVE
LITTLE OVER NEXT FEW HOURS.
2. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SWRN KS TO NERN OK AND MOVING
NWD 10-15 KT IN STEP WITH AMBIENT SFC WINDS ON BOTH SIDES.
DIFFUSE DRYLINE WAS RETREATING WNWWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES FROM
SERN PORTIONS WW 203 SSWWD.
SFC MOIST AXIS...WITH DEW POINTS 67-70 F...WAS ANALYZED NEAR
SZL...BVO...OUN...FSI...FDR LINE. BKN LOW CLOUDS HAVE LED TO SLOW
DIABATIC HEATING OF SW-NE CORRIDOR NEAR MOIST AXIS...MINIMIZING
MLCINH AND MAXIMIZING MLCAPE AT AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG S OF WARM
FRONT...PER MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS. 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EVIDENT OVER OK. MLCAPE BETWEEN WARM AND
STATIONARY FRONTS IS SOMEWHAT LESS...1000-2000 J/KG...BUT STILL
FAVORABLE GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR OVER SRN/SERN KS...I.E.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 50-60 KT. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE RISING
OVER THIS REGION...HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
MAINTAINED...LEADING TO LITTLE CHANGE IN DEEP-SHEAR VALUES. SFC FLOW
IS DIFLUENT OVER N-CENTRAL OK AND S-CENTRAL KS...WHERE IT SPLITS
BETWEEN STREAMS ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
MO/IA AND LEE TROUGHING OVER HIGH PLAINS. THIS LEADS TO CURRENTLY
SMALL HODOGRAPHS...HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 00Z
WITH SLGT STRENGTHENING OF 850-MB FLOW FROM CENTRAL OK NEWD. AS
SUCH...BOTH MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL MODES ARE POSSIBLE. GROWING
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT NWD TO NEWD OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS.
SOME CONVECTION-RESOLVING/HIGH-RES GUIDANCE REASONABLY INDICATES ITS
NW FRINGES EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH TSTMS MOVING OUT OF WW 203.
..EDWARDS.. 04/29/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36729443 35549599 35289789 36229850 37349858 38499790
39079314 37519391 36729443
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0623.html
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