MD 0625 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204…206… FOR PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1004 PM CDT SUN APR 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...206... VALID 300304Z - 300430Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 204...206...CONTINUES. CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WWS 204 AND 206. PORTIONS WW 204 MAY BE EXTENDED IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SVR THREAT THAT CONTINUES PAST ORIGINAL 4Z EXPIRATION. CLUSTER OF SVR TSTMS W-S OF LBB IN WW 204 INCLUDES APPARENT HEAVY-PRECIP SUPERCELL ALREADY RESPONSIBLE FOR REPORTS OF HAIL AT LEAST 2.75 INCHES DIAMETER OVER PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND ANOTHER SVR TSTM BEHIND GUST FRONT OF SUPERCELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AS WELL AS SVR DOWNDRAFTS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE. DESPITE GRADUAL INCREASE IN MLCINH...TSTMS WILL BE MAINTAINED IN SHORT TERM BY FAVORABLE BUOYANCY...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BACKED/SELY/30-35 KT BRANCH OF LLJ. RELATED LENGTHENING/CURVATURE OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL SERVE TWO PURPOSES... 1. PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF BUT POTENTIALLY TORNADIC MESOCYCLONE INTENSIFICATION IN RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS...AND 2. REDUCE NEGATIVE SRH FOR LEFT-MOVERS...SUCH AS ONE THAT CONTAINED EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC COUPLET FROM W OF PVW NEWD ALMOST TO PALO DURO CANYON. FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH GUST FRONT OF SRN PORTION OF KS/NRN PANHANDLES MCS IS CONTRIBUTING TO ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN PORTIONS WW 206. AFOREMENTIONED LEFT-MOVER...AND ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT MAY DEVELOP OVER E-CENTRAL PANHANDLE...MAY MERGE AND MOVE INTO WRN OK OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS WELL...OFFERING RISK OF SVR HAIL/GUSTS. ..EDWARDS.. 04/30/2012 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 32520120 32300231 32850299 34910218 35880190 35909998 34390011 32890056 32590095 32520120
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0625.html
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