MD 0632 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 170… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1043 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2023
Areas affected...parts of southeastern Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 170...
Valid 270343Z - 270545Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 170 continues.
SUMMARY...An evolving convective system will continue to pose some
continuing risk for severe hail, with at least some intensification
of associated surface gusts still possible through 1-2 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A mesoscale convective vortex has become a bit better
defined to the west-northwest of Lufkin, with strongest convection
focused in an arc to its south, southwestward into the College
Station vicinity. Rear inflow into this developing convective
system may still be in the process of strengthening, but, to this
point at least, the convectively driven surface cold pool and
associated surface gusts have remained modest to weak.
Perhaps aided by steepening lapse rates associated with a narrow
plume of northeastward advecting elevated mixed-layer air, there has
recently been an increase in hail size, particularly with the lead
cell near the apex of the evolving bowing segment evident in radar
reflectivities. However, it not clear that this will persist beyond
perhaps another hour or two, before convective overturning
stabilizes the lapse rates. It is still possible, though, that
inflow characterized by moderately large CAPE will maintain updraft
intensities, and that associated cold pool strengthening could
become sufficient to support at least some further intensification
of surface gusts through 06-07Z.
..Kerr.. 04/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 31509423 31029291 29919486 30129588 30499604 30609540
31129474 31509423
