MD 0636 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023
Areas affected...South Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 271411Z - 271545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A storm or two may produce large hail given very steep
mid-level lapse rates. Overall coverage and intensity is still
anticipated to be marginal. A watch may become necessary should
coverage and intensity of storms increase more than expected.
DISCUSSION...Convection has developed just on the cool side of a
cold front in South Texas. A modestly organized storm near
Hebbronville shows hail near 1 in. possible on MRMS MESH. The 12Z
CRP and BRO soundings do show very steep lapse rates at mid-levels.
However, there is also 12-15 C temperatures around 800 mb.
Furthermore, convergence along the front is quite limited with a
northerly component noted in all area surface observations. With the
shortwave trough exiting the region to the east, synoptic support
for sustained convection will be decreasing. That being said,
convection that can persist will be capable of large hail. Storm
coverage and overall intensity is expected to remain marginal. A
watch may become necessary should coverage and intensity of storms
increase more than expected.
..Wendt/Hart.. 04/27/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...
LAT...LON 26599930 27539878 28039794 28309750 28029707 27629704
27159729 26259706 25809701 25709757 26239913 26599930
