MD 0645 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176… FOR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0645
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023
Areas affected...Northern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176...
Valid 280208Z - 280415Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 176
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe hail/wind threat is expected to persist across
northern MS heading into the late evening hours.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, the initially discrete convection
across eastern AR has maintained sufficient separation to preclude
upscale growth into a more organized quasi-linear convective system
despite multiple storm interactions. Furthermore, these
semi-discrete cells continue to move into the apex of the buoyancy
axis where recent RAP mesoanalysis and forecast soundings suggest
MUCAPE is on the order of 1000 J/kg. Regional VWPs ahead of this
activity continue to show elongated, somewhat straight hodographs
with some augmentation in storm-relative winds within the lowest 1-2
km - likely in response to a modest uptick in the nocturnal jet
ahead of the synoptic low over eastern AR. This trend hints that
kinematic environment is becoming slightly more favorable for
maintaining organized convection. The onset of diurnal cooling ahead
of this activity (temperatures falling into the low 60s) casts some
uncertainty onto the propensity for surface-based convection and the
overall wind damage threat, but given the aforementioned MUCAPE
field, persistent ascent ahead of the vort max, and slightly
improving kinematic environment, the threat for large hail should
continue downstream across northern MS.
..Moore.. 04/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 33839099 34299082 34939034 35119000 35088830 35018802
34818785 33548810 33448851 33659075 33839099
