MD 0646 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023
Areas affected...parts of central and north Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 281725Z - 282000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this
afternoon with convective initiation expected between 2-3pm near the
triple point. Large to giant hail (1-3 inches in diameter), severe
gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes are possible over central TX.
Large hail and severe gusts are possible farther north over North
Texas.
DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a stratocumulus field
near and east of I-35 from San Antonio northward through Waco. This
cloud feature is located within a plume of richer low-level moisture
(ranging from the lower 60s north to upper 60s south) advancing
north in association with a warm front. Strong heating is occurring
near and south of a triple point 35 mi east of Abilene to areas
southward along and east of a dryline where temperatures are rising
through the 80s.
Model forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs by mid-late
afternoon near the warm frontal zone with a very unstable airmass
(2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) located from the warm front
south-southwestward into the Hill Country. As the cap erodes from
the early into the mid afternoon, explosive thunderstorm development
is expected initially near the triple point with storms rapidly
becoming supercellular. Large to giant hail is forecast with this
initial activity with a tornado risk probably developing before
additional storms and convective coalescence lead to upscale growth
into the early evening. The tornado risk will probably lessen upon
full transition to linear modes.
Farther north near the Metroplex and areas along I-20, weaker
buoyancy and less favorable hodographs according to forecast
soundings, will limit the severe risk to large hail and severe
gusts.
..Smith/Thompson.. 04/28/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 33879747 32969848 32179868 31459885 30879820 30379710
30979620 33669583 33939657 33879747
