MD 0648 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2023 Areas affected...portions of south-central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 281852Z - 282015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase as storms initiate ahead of a merging cold front/dryline over the next few hours. Hurricane-force wind gusts and very large hail over baseball size is possible with the strongest storms. A WW will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...A dryline continues to meander eastward across the TX Hill Country as a cold front drifts southward over the TX Big Country. These boundaries are expected to merge over the next few hours, increasing low-level convergence within a well-mixed, very buoyant boundary layer. Current observations show surface temperatures/dewpoints exceeding 80/upper 60s F ahead of the dryline, that combined with 8+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis) are contributing to over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, regional VADs are showing substantial veering with height in the 850-500 mb layer, resulting in 40 kts of effective bulk shear. As storms initiate ahead of the merging fronts, supercell modes should result, supporting the threat for large hail (including a few instances of 3+ inch stones possible). The strong convergence along the merging fronts will also support storm/cold pool mergers, which will promote a severe wind threat. Given the well-mixed boundary-layer preceding very intense storm cores, evaporative cooling may become strong/efficient enough to support 65+ kt gusts). A WW will be needed soon to address the increasing severe potential. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29010083 30249988 30669931 30849877 30939824 30789728 30239716 29039808 28259917 27960007 28120023 29010083